Due to global economic, emissions and population growth trends, it is extremely unlikely that the warming of the planet will be able to stop below the 2 degrees Celsius levels as predicted by the Paris Climate Agreement.
The Paris Accord, signed by 195 countries, undertakes to increase the global average temperature by “substantially less than 2 degrees Celsius” compared to the pre-industrial level. It also sets an ambitious target of limiting growth to 1.5 degrees, but the chance of achieving this is about one percent.
In the research on a study published in Nature Climate Change by Adrian Raftery of the University of Washington, he mentioned, “If we want to avoid crossing the two-step limit, there is very little time left. The public should be very concerned.
The two-step limit was also established on the advice of climate scientists. Higher temperature rise will trigger changes with disastrous consequences – a significant increase in seabed, dry heat, waves of heat, and subsequent social unrest.
According to the study, global warming would cause 60,000 deaths globally by 2030, with 260,000 deaths in 2100 and the temperature of the air pollution will deteriorate.
The carbon intensity is decisive
The Washington study argues that with a 90% probability the average global temperature will increase by 2100 by 2-4.9 degrees. This would be a medium warming scenario modeled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New research analyzes trends in world population, gross domestic product per capita and carbon intensity over the last 50 years.
Based on statistical models covering a wide range of emission scenarios, the study concludes that carbon intensity – the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of economic activity – will be the key factor determining the future of warming.
Technological advances should help reduce carbon intensity by up to 90 percent this century. Fastest drops should be in India and China – two fast-growing energy consumers. However, this drop will not be fast enough to help stop the temperature rise below two degrees. Unfortunately, this ambition is overshadowed by Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US signature under a climate agreement. The United States is still the second largest producer of emissions.
The world population should grow to about 11 billion by the end of the century. However, the impact on temperature rises should be minimal: most of the population will be in sub-Saharan Africa, which is a small greenhouse gas emitter. It is not easy to accurately estimate the probability of thermal scenarios. If we look at the adoption of technologies and steps taken in the case of ozone layer and acid rains, it is clear that these things can change faster than people predict, indeed reducing energy prices from renewable sources should be the main driver of emission reductions.
The climate change is taking the price already
Climate change has led more than 59,000 farmers to suicide in India in the past 30 years. This is the result of a study by the University of California, Thomson Reuters Foundation. More than half of the Indian population is dependent on the agricultural sector. In the last few decades, tens of thousands of farmers have been trapped or drunk with pesticides due to non-seasonal droughts and rainfall. Because of the devastated crop, they face high debt.
The Indian government has already introduced credit depreciation and crop insurance, and subsidies for fertilizers. However, the Farmers Union complains that the implementation of these measures is slow.
Since 1980, the number of suicides in India has almost doubled, bringing more than 130,000 lives each year. Climate change is the cause of suicide in seven percent of cases. Only in 2015 has committed suicide more than 12,600 farmers, which is 10 % of the total number of suicides in 2015.
The study also shows that each degree above 20 degrees has brought suicide of 65 people across the country. If the government does not interfere and help families adapt to a warmer climate, it is likely that the number of suicide will increase, given the ever-worsening climate change in India.